The more things change

BUENOS AIRES

WHEN Cristina Fernández de Kirchner ran to succeed her husband, Néstor Kirchner, as Argentina’s president in 2007, she promised to deliver a more moderate, conciliatory and worldly version of his insular and combative administration. Once in office, however, she left Mr Kirchner in charge of economic policy and managing the country’s hegemonic Peronist party, and retained his confrontational style. Disappointed voters abandoned the ruling couple in droves, delivering control of Congress to the opposition in last year’s midterm elections.

On October 27th, Mr Kirchner died of a heart attack. The country immediately rallied behind its widowed president, increasing her approval rating by over 20 percentage points. And political analysts began debating whether Ms Fernández, no longer governing from weakness and no longer pressured by her hardline husband, would make a long-awaited move to the centre before running for re-election in 2011. Plenty of time still remains before the start of next year’s campaign. But the early signs suggest such hopes are likely to be disappointed.

Following a week of mourning, Argentina’s political calendar resumed with discussion of next year’s budget. One of Mr Kirchner’s favourite fiscal tactics, which Ms Fernández has continued using, was systematically lowballing the government’s official projections for inflation and GDP growth, which are used to determine spending. When tax revenues inevitably came in higher than forecast, the president could distribute the excess without legislative oversight, allowing the Kirchners to reward friendly governors and mayors while denying opponents their fair share of public works.

This year’s projections were no exception. Inflation was predicted to be 8.9% (even less than the increase in the official consumer-price index, which is doctored) while independent economists expect a rate two to three times higher. And the economy was forecast to grow by 4.3%—a figure that could only be reached by a recession, since it is currently expanding at over 9% a year. Barring any big surprises, this fudging would give Ms Fernández around $10 billion to spend as she pleases next year. The budget also authorised the use of up to $7.5 billion of the central bank’s foreign-currency reserves to pay maturing debt, a policy that critics argue will further fuel inflation.

The congressional opposition has presented numerous amendments to address these concerns. If Ms Fernández were planning a more compromise-oriented government, discussing these proposals would be a logical place to start. But the president’s congressional allies (who generally take orders from the executive) still refuse to consider any changes. Instead, they are accusing the opposition of trying to leave Ms Fernández without a budget to prevent her from governing—even though the president has the authority to extend the 2010 budget into next year unilaterally, which would put even more discretionary cash at her disposal. In response, opposition leaders are charging that the government offered pliable lawmakers unspecified favours in exchange for supporting the budget or conveniently missing the vote. The legislative climate has become so poisonous that when Carlos Kunkel, a longtime ally of the Kirchners, launched a diatribe in a committee meeting against Luis Barrionuevo, a well-known union leader, Mr Barrionuevo’s wife, who is also a congresswoman, smacked him in the face.

In the short run, Ms Fernández has good reason not to give ground on the government’s economic projections. A more realistic inflation forecast would represent an official acknowledgement that Argentina has been manipulating its price index, which could expose the government to lawsuits from holders of inflation-linked bonds. And in the last few weeks she has conspicuously ceased her criticism of the country’s main media companies, which was her primary crusade in the months before Mr Kirchner’s death—a sign that she may at least pick her battles more selectively in the future. Nonetheless, for now, there is little evidence to suggest that the president has a political transformation in the offing.